Snow Storm February 4th - 5th

I've been seeing discussion on the up coming snow storm for February 4th -5th 2014 for the Indiana region. During this post, I will give a brief synopsis of current model output. Due to the complexities of winter storm forecasting, these outputs can drastically change over the next few days. These images should be taken lightly. 

Model's

European

To begin, The European model is usually the most accurate in weather prediction. The European model depicts snow initiation at Tuesday 02/04/14 at around 8pm. It shows a vigorous snow swath spanning from south central to north central Indiana with snow fall rates around an inch per hour. Storm is expected to end around 8am.

Canadian

The Canadian is another highly sensitive model, it appears to agree with the timing of the snow event. Snow appears to be entering Indiana boundary around 8pm and dumping substantial snow amounts. Storm appears to end before 8am. Similarities can be deduced from swath path and width. Both models appear to be showing heaviest snow bands in central Indiana moving NE. Intensity of storm also appear to be in an agreement. 

Global Forecast System - American

The GFS, American model, disagrees with the Canadian and EURO models and shows the majority of the snow traveling through extreme southern Indiana and impacting Kentucky the most. It also disagrees with a widespread severe snow event and displays a more localized impact around the tri-state (Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio) location. An important factor is that timing and general location is roughly in agreement with the previous two models. 

Origins

You might be asking yourself.. Is this global warming? Are we experiencing global cooling?

These questions are normal, but this is nothing new. This is an example of a Colorado low. Colorado lows  originate from Colorado around the winter/spring time. Generally speaking, they bring about large amounts of winter precipitation with them. They can also be compared with Alberta clippers, which originate from Alberta Canada. It is normal for the heaviest snow band to be between 50-200 miles wide. Areas of heaviest snow can be seen where 700mb (A layer in the atmosphere) temperatures are between -10 and -5 degrees. Looking at the forecasted 700mb temps for this time period, it appears that the location meets the criteria as temps are between -10 and -5 degrees C. 

Conclusion

So as of now, conditions do look favorable for another snow storm beginning Tuesday evening 02/04/14 into Wednesday morning 02/05/14. All three major models are showing similar results of timing and intensity of the storm. Discrepancies occur on location of heaviest snow bands. Again, these forecasts are a week out as of currently. Literally anything can drastically increase or reduce these figures, so these totals should be taken with a grain of salt. 

References

www.weatherbell.com

www.theweatherprediction.com

www.twisterdata.com